Vail Valley Real Estate Trends are driven by micro-markets in our community; which Vail Valley area is next to see mega appreciation?

In a fast appreciating resort real estate market like we have in the Vail Valley, it is sometimes difficult to predict future real estate appreciation trends.  Because there is such a wide pricing array of property choices in most Vail areas and appreciation can be influenced by a few buyers "not caring what they pay", past Vail Valley appreciation is hard to track.  Sometimes condominiums seem like they appreciate twenty to thirty percent overnight.

However, after fifteen years as a licensed and very active vail real estate broker, i have come to notice some distinct patterns in our microcosmic vail real estate markets that can help guesstimate real estate price spurts in other subdivisions within Eagle County.

Most obviously is the driving force of the Vail and Beaver Creek ski areas; there is no doubt that when ski-in/ski-out and base area Village properties become scarce and prices increase, the appreciation effect reverberates to other communities in Eagle County.  However, prior to this, there are other remote subdivision indicators that can have an effect on limited inventory in the ski and village areas.

For instance, one of the more interesting trends I have noticed countless times is the market value synergy between East Vail and Lionshead.  When the difference in price for a like kind property in these two areas exceeds more than fifty percent difference; Lionshead being a base ski Village area and the more expensive of the two; you can first expect to see a surge in price in East Vail followed by a second surge in Lionshead with the stabilizing difference falling between thrity and forty percent.

Another newer trend i have noticed is between Eagle Ranch and Edwards.  Eagle Ranch is a new development and new construction pricing is somewhat determined by the developer.  As the prices in Eagle Ranch have risen, prices for likekind property in Edwards have increased on a similar percentage basis.

So your thinking that’s great but:  "Which Vail Valley area is next to see mega appreciation?" 

First the disclosure:  I do not sell investments; I sell real estate; any opinions expressed here are only opinions and are not meant for evaluation of a real estate purchase.

The answer:  Watch for Cordillera Valley Club prices to surge this coming summer.  In addition, the nicer Wildridge homes should also move up in price over the next year.  Although Minturn has seen some fairly high appreciation rates in the past six months, a big big new development proposal currently under review should continue to move prices up in this area.

Of course, if i was perfect with my picks, i wouldn’t be writing this article; in fact, i am still a partner in a Cordillera Summit lot that we have not been able to sell for the price we bought at going on five years now.

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